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Author Topic: New Guy’s calculations: top & bottom estimates  (Read 1822 times)

Clear

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New Guy’s calculations: top & bottom estimates
« on: October 09, 2006, 09:29:47 AM »
My estimates related to future earnings were derived by using the 80 20 rule and assuming: (1) the top 20% of the 300 companies that represent 80% of potential earnings to PTSCE have been and are being worked first,  (2) the license agreements don’t include ongoing royalty payments, and (3) the average future earnings per licensed company will be about the same as the past average earnings per licensed company.

Estimating with these assumptions suggests the stock will begin to flounder in the $3 to $6 range (maybe $8 with investor exuberance). Upside is much greater if management properly uses the windfall licensing profits. Down side is $.00 if a patent litigation is lost or a patent work-around is discovered (in my view very unlikely).

Most estimates are wrong. Many estimates are useful for rough sizing.

Be realistic and enjoy the ride.
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Clear

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Re: New Guy’s calculations: top & bottom estimates
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2006, 10:34:18 AM »
I forgot to mention timing.  My $3 to $6 (maybe $8) estimated range will likely be reached very quickly after the Quarterly Report is released.

Beyond that depends on evidence that the company is investing licensing profits in a way that will yield growing returns.
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C C F

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Re: New Guy’s calculations: top & bottom estimates
« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2006, 01:07:46 PM »
Which order by mail book did you get your research skills from?  You are a fraud!
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GoForth

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Re: New Guy’s calculations: top & bottom estimates
« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2006, 02:34:01 PM »
I don't know Clear. I would be happy to have it, but with so many outstanding shares I'd be pleased with the low estimate of $3. Of course it depends on the report, and even better, the announcement of many more licensees.
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